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Gold Average Price Forecast for 2013 at $1920


Some expect gold's "star status" to continue in 2013.

Gold reached $1730 per ounce in early London trading on Friday – the same level seen just before last week's late jump and subsequent 2.0% sell-off on Wednesday.

Silver touched a new 8-week high just shy of $34.40 per ounce and the broader commodities market ticked lower.

Major-government debt prices were flat and so too were European stock markets.

New data today showed Eurozone unemployment hitting a post-unification record of 11.7% while the German Bundestag voted 473 to 100 to approve the latest €44 billion aid to Greece.

"[Gold demand from] central banks could help the price, specifically South American banks," says one London trader in a note. "But that's demand for the long run, and our days are made of shorter-term decisions."

Latest data from the US Mint showed a strong rise in sales of Gold Coins to retail dealers in late November.

Holdings in exchange-traded trust products (gold ETFs) rose globally to a new record high of 2,619.4 tonnes according to Bloomberg. "[That's] proof that gold remains in high demand as a store of value and a safe haven despite all the price fluctuations," says this morning's note from Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

"My average [gold price] forecast for 2013 is $1920," says David Jollie at Mitsui, the Japanese trading conglomerate. He was the winner in 2011 of the London Bullion Market Association's silver forecast.

"We expect investment demand to remain robust in China," adds the latest monthly report from Standard Bank's precious metals analysts here in London. "The reasons for the expected rise in gold investment demand in China are broad-based and, we believe, very similar to those in many other countries...substantial monetary stimulus and low or negative real interest rates."

Speaking today to Reuters, Marcus Grubb, director for investment at the World Gold Council, said "There's evidence already that the Chinese economy is bottoming out, and beginning to recover again. [Gold will] have strength into Q1 next year on Chinese New Year... I think you'll see China perform strongly in 2013 as the economy recovers."

Grubb is forecasting a 10% rise in 2013 gold demand from this year's likely 800-tonne total.

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Ben Traynor

Ben Traynor

Contributing Editor

Email: ben[at]miningfeeds.com

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Ben Traynor is a Cambridge economics graduate and professional writer with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben also serves as editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from gold ownership service BullionVault.

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