Gold Has Good Chance Now to Break-Out

The more times a level is tested, the weaker it becomes and the more likely it is to break.

Once again, Gold has rallied up to the wall of resistance in the $1350 to $1375 region. Gold has previously tested that wall a handful of times but failed to break through.

This time, Gold is in position to punch through and I will explain why.

First, we can allude to what we already wrote. The more times a level is tested, the more likely it is to break. By virtue of testing resistance again, Gold is already in a better position.

Second, the fundamentals are moving into place.

Specifically, market-based indicators of real interest rates (the fundamental driver for Gold) are falling in anticipation of Fed easing, which is nearly a given at this point.

Over the past year, we’ve noted that in 11 of the 13 rate-cut cycles since 1955, gold stocks have averaged a 172% gain from the bottom (usually a few months before) around the first rate cut.

In short, the start of a rate cut cycle is usually very bullish for precious metals. This was not in place in 2017 or 2018 but should be for the second half of 2019.

Third, Gold is in position to break resistance while the US Dollar technically remains in an uptrend but in a weak state. At present, the dollar is not oversold nor does it appear likely to blast higher.

In the summer of 2016, the dollar had already put in a higher low while in late 2017 and early 2018, the dollar broke to new lows but Gold failed to break through.

If the greenback were to weaken and lose its 40-week moving average (which it has held for over a year), it should push Gold past $1400/oz and potentially to $1500/oz.

If the Fed follows through and we get multiple rate hikes before 2020, Gold should break the wall of the resistance. Couple that with a breakdown in the dollar and Gold could reach $1500/oz or even higher.

We anticipate the gold stocks, junior gold stocks and Silver could explode higher once Gold breaks that wall of resistance. To learn which stocks we own and intend to buy that have 3x to 5x potential, consider learning more about our premium service.

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA

June 14,2019

Jordan Roy-Byrne

Jordan Roy-Byrne

Contributing Editor

Email: jordan[at]

Jordan on Google+Google+

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT is a Chartered Market Technician and member of the Market Technicians Association. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premium, a publication which emphasizes market timing and stock selection for the sophisticated investor, as well as TheDailyGold Global, an add-on service for subscribers which covers global capital markets.

Jordan’s work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan has been a speaker at PDAC, Cambridge House and Hard Assets conferences. was recently named one of the top 50 Investment Blogs by DailyReckoning. Jordan earned a degree in General Studies from the University of Washington with a concentration in International Economic Development.




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