The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Lundin Mining Corporation (TSE:LUN), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its second-quarter results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with US$1.1b revenue coming in 7.2% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.16 missed the mark badly, arriving some 28% below what was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Lundin Mining after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Lundin Mining

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Lundin Mining's 17 analysts is for revenues of US$4.38b in 2024. This reflects a modest 7.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 217% to US$0.70. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.49b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.72 in 2024. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CA$17.44, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Lundin Mining's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Lundin Mining, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$20.09 and the most bearish at CA$8.65 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Lundin Mining'shistorical trends, as the 16% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 is roughly in line with the 15% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 16% annually. It's clear that while Lundin Mining's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$17.44, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Lundin Mining going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Lundin Mining that you need to be mindful of.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com