Make better investment decisions with Simply Wall St’s easy, visual tools that give you a competitive edge.

Event driven snapshot of Southern Copper

Southern Copper (SCCO) is back on investor radars after recent price swings, with the share price at $162.07 and short term returns ranging from a 6.1% weekly gain to a 25.8% decline over the past month.

See our latest analysis for Southern Copper.

The recent pullback, including a 25.8% 30 day share price return and 9.9% year to date share price return, sits alongside an 83.6% 1 year total shareholder return. This indicates that momentum has cooled following a strong run.

If you are comparing Southern Copper with other producers, it can be useful to scan the broader copper space using our 8 top copper producer stocks

With the share price near $162 and mixed recent returns set against an 83.6% 1 year total return, the key question now is whether Southern Copper still trades at a discount or if the market already prices in expectations for future performance.

Most Popular Narrative: 8.4% Overvalued

Southern Copper’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of $149.54, which sits below the current $162.07 share price and frames the latest pullback in a different light.

Southern Copper has announced substantial capital investments totaling over $15 billion, including projects in Mexico and Peru, which are expected to drive future production growth and potentially boost revenue significantly. The company’s Buenavista zinc concentrator is now operating at full capacity, anticipated to drive a 31% increase in zinc production in 2025, likely enhancing revenues and improving net margins due to efficient operations.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue trajectory and margin profile need to line up with those investments to support that fair value? The narrative leans on specific growth rates, profitability assumptions and a future earnings multiple that is compared directly with the broader US metals and mining group, all filtered through a single discount rate to bring those cash flows back to today.

Result: Fair Value of $149.54 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, investors still need to watch for rising operating costs and potential project or community disruptions that could pressure margins and delay expected cash generation.

Find out about the key risks to this Southern Copper narrative.

Another View: Cash Flows Paint a Different Picture

The narrative fair value of $149.54 suggests Southern Copper looks 8.4% overvalued against the $162.07 share price. However, the SWS DCF model points the other way, with a future cash flow value of $176.81 implying the shares trade at an 8.3% discount. So which story do you trust more: earnings multiples or long term cash flows?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

SCCO Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Southern Copper for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 62 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Uncertain about whether the current enthusiasm or caution resonates more with you? Take a closer look at the underlying data, weigh both sides, and let the balance of risks and rewards guide your own view with 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Do not stop your research with Southern Copper alone; broaden your watchlist with other focused ideas that match different goals, risk levels, and income needs.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning for companies that combine quality with valuation support using the 62 high quality undervalued stocks.
• Strengthen your income stream by searching for companies that offer higher yields and robust payouts through the 12 dividend fortresses.
• Cut down portfolio stress by filtering for companies with more resilient profiles and steadier risk scores via the 64 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SCCO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com