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Recent performance snapshot

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) has drawn investor attention recently, with the share price around A$54.56 and total returns over the past year, past 3 months and month all in positive territory.

See our latest analysis for BHP Group.

Recent momentum has been firm, with a 7 day share price return of 6.5% and a 90 day share price return of 14.33%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 57.87% reflects notable long term gains.

If you are looking beyond miners and want to see where else capital is moving, this is a good moment to scan 8 top copper producer stocks

With BHP trading around A$54.56, slightly above the A$53.26 analyst price target and with an intrinsic value estimate that sits well below the market price, investors now face a key question: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 2% Undervalued

With BHP Group’s last close at A$54.56 versus a narrative fair value of A$55.50, the current price sits just below where the story says it should be, according to Bailey.

Data Center and AI-Driven Copper Demand: Beyond general electrification, the explosive growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centers is creating a new, capital-intensive source of demand for copper. BHP’s high-quality copper portfolio (including Escondida and Copper South Australia) is positioned to serve this sector, which requires significant copper cabling and power infrastructure, potentially tightening the global supply deficit sooner than expected.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand why this narrative prices BHP above today’s level? It leans heavily on copper, potash and margin assumptions that reshape long term cash flows.

Result: Fair Value of A$55.50 (ABOUT RIGHT)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there are clear pressure points, including a potential structural decline in Chinese steel demand and cost or timing setbacks at big projects like Jansen that could challenge this copper and potash driven story.

Find out about the key risks to this BHP Group narrative.

Another View: Cash Flows Paint a Tougher Picture

While Bailey’s narrative fair value sits at A$55.50, our DCF model is less generous, indicating a future cash flow value of A$36.98 with BHP trading at A$54.56. That gap points to possible overvaluation. So which story do you trust more: the narrative or the cash flows?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

BHP Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out BHP Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 8 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and caution feels familiar, that is the point. Take a closer look at the data and pressure test both sides before settling on a view, starting with 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas?

You have already done the hard work by digging into BHP, so do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist with other ideas that could sharpen your portfolio.

• Target potential value opportunities before they are widely talked about by scanning 8 high quality undervalued stocks that fit your preferred quality and pricing filters.
• Strengthen your income stream by reviewing 7 dividend fortresses that combine higher yields with business fundamentals you can scrutinize in detail.
• Reduce portfolio stress by focusing on resilience first, using 9 resilient stocks with low risk scores to spot companies with lower risk scores that still meet your return expectations.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BHP.AX.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com