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• If you are wondering whether Southern Copper’s current share price lines up with its underlying value, this breakdown will help you put the recent performance into context.
• The stock last closed at US$171.18, with a 1 year return of 99.0% and a year to date gain of 16.1%, even as the 7 day and 30 day returns show declines of 5.1% and 3.7% respectively.
• Recent headlines around Southern Copper have continued to focus on its position in the copper market and the broader interest in metals linked to electrification. This keeps attention on the stock even when short term returns soften. At the same time, investors are weighing this backdrop against valuation metrics to decide whether the strong 3 year and 5 year returns of 153.9% and 193.8% already reflect much of that story.
• Despite this performance, Southern Copper currently holds a valuation score of 0 out of 6. The next sections will walk through what different valuation methods say about the stock and then finish with a broader way to think about value that goes beyond the usual ratios.

Southern Copper scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Southern Copper Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today, so you can compare that value to the current share price.

For Southern Copper, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model starts with last twelve months free cash flow of about $4.29b. Analysts provide free cash flow estimates for the next several years, and Simply Wall St extends these out further. For example, projected free cash flow for 2030 is $7.23b, with intermediate years between 2026 and 2035 ranging from about $4.87b to $8.36b before discounting.

After discounting these projected cash flows back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $140.98 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $171.18, this suggests the stock is around 21.4% overvalued on this DCF view.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Southern Copper may be overvalued by 21.4%. Discover 50 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

SCCO Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Southern Copper.

Approach 2: Southern Copper Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Southern Copper, the P/E ratio is a useful way to gauge how much you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. Investors generally accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger earnings growth or see lower risk, while slower growth or higher risk usually justifies a lower, more conservative P/E.

Southern Copper currently trades on a P/E of 28.48x. That sits above the Metals and Mining industry average of 22.15x and also above the broader peer average of 20.72x. To go a step further, Simply Wall St calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 26.86x for Southern Copper, which reflects factors such as its earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks.

This Fair Ratio aims to be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the industry because it adjusts for the company’s own fundamentals rather than treating all miners as identical. Against this 26.86x Fair Ratio, Southern Copper’s current 28.48x P/E looks somewhat elevated, suggesting the shares trade at a premium to what this model implies.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:SCCO P/E Ratio as at May 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Southern Copper Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you turn your view of Southern Copper into a clear story that connects assumptions about future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast, a Fair Value and then a simple comparison with today’s price. This all happens inside the Community page used by millions of investors, with each Narrative updating automatically when fresh news or earnings arrive. For example, one investor might build a bullish Southern Copper Narrative closer to the higher fair value area around US$233.07 based on expectations for strong cash generation and a richer future P/E. Another might choose a more cautious Narrative nearer the low end around US$67.81 that leans on the risk of production headwinds and a lower future P/E. By seeing these side by side, you can quickly decide whether your own Fair Value says the current US$171.18 price looks high, low or about right for your next buy or sell decision.

For Southern Copper however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Southern Copper Narratives:

Think of these as quick snapshots that show how different assumptions about growth, margins and risks can lead to very different ideas of fair value. Your job is to decide which version of the story feels closer to your own expectations.

🐂 Southern Copper Bull Case

Fair value: US$233.07

Gap to this fair value: shares are about 26.5% below this estimate using the current US$171.18 price.

Revenue growth used in the forecast: 13.45% a year.

• Assumes major growth projects and demand linked to electrification support higher volumes and help keep revenue and earnings expanding.
• Credits Southern Copper with a low cost position, firm margins and ESG work that could support stronger stakeholder support over time.
• Accepts a richer future P/E multiple to get to a higher fair value, while still flagging meaningful geopolitical, project execution and environmental risks.

🐻 Southern Copper Bear Case

Fair value: US$162.54

Gap to this fair value: shares sit about 5.3% above this estimate using the current US$171.18 price.

Revenue growth used in the forecast: 4.84% a year.

• Builds in steady but more moderate revenue and earnings growth, with some disagreement between analysts on how strong earnings might be.
• Assumes capital spending and cost pressures, plus issues such as tariffs and higher expenses, could weigh on margins compared with the most optimistic views.
• Uses a lower future P/E multiple than the bullish view and concludes that, on these inputs, the current share price already comes in above the central fair value estimate.

These two Narratives show how the same company can look either ahead of itself or with room to run depending on what you believe about future copper demand, project delivery and what P/E the market is willing to pay.

If you want to see how other investors are joining the dots between earnings forecasts, fair value and risks, and how they are updating their views as new news arrives, See what the community is saying about Southern Copper.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Southern Copper? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:SCCO 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SCCO.

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