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BHP Group's A$ fair value estimate has shifted from A$52.50 to A$53.40, giving you an updated anchor for how analysts are framing the stock today. That modest move lines up with recent Street research, where some firms have lifted price targets in A$, US$ and GBp while others remain cautious and hold to Neutral, Sell or Market Perform calls. As you read on, you will see how these changing targets fit into the broader analyst story and what signals to watch next.

Analyst Price Targets don't always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value BHP Group.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying 🐂 Bullish Takeaways

• Argus has taken one of the more optimistic stances, lifting its US$ price target to $90 from $68 and pointing to what it describes as supportive long term fundamentals for BHP Group.
• Barclays, Citi and Berenberg have all raised their GBp targets through early 2026, which signals that several firms see room for the stock to better reflect their updated valuation work.
• Berenberg moved from an earlier Sell view to an upgrade in April 2026, suggesting that, in its view, execution and positioning now better support the stock than before.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

• Bernstein trimmed its US$ target to $48 from $49.50 and kept a Market Perform rating, stressing that commodity mix and valuation remain central to its more measured stance.
• Several banks, including JPMorgan, Citi and Deutsche Bank, continue to sit at Neutral or Hold, reflecting caution around how BHP Group converts its asset base into growth and returns at current pricing.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!

ASX:BHP 1-Year Stock Price Chart

We've flagged 1 risk for BHP Group. See which could impact your investment.

What's in the News

• BHP entered an agreement with China Mineral Resources Group, indicating closer engagement with a major Chinese counterparty on iron ore supply and pricing terms.
• BHP reported March quarter production of 476.8 kt of copper, 62.8 Mt of iron ore, 3.8 Mt of steelmaking coal and 4.0 Mt of energy coal, along with year to date volumes across these commodities.
• BHP completed a long term silver streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals International for its share of silver output from the Antamina mine in Peru, receiving upfront consideration of US$4.3b in exchange for a portion of future silver production.
• BHP's Board announced that Brandon Craig will become CEO on 1 July 2026, succeeding Mike Henry, and the company declared an interim dividend of US$0.73 per share for the six months ended 31 December 2025.

How This Changes the Fair Value For BHP Group

• Fair value in A$ has moved from A$52.50 to A$53.40.
• Assumed $ revenue growth has shifted from 1.07% to 1.15%.
• Assumed net profit margin has adjusted from 23.84% to 23.50%.
• The future P/E multiple has changed from 18.41x to 19.05x.
• The discount rate has remained unchanged at 8.56%.

Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives connect BHP Group's business story to analyst forecasts and fair value estimates, updating as new data, news and projections come through. They give you a single place to see how the thesis is evolving over time.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on BHP Group to stay up to date on:

• How copper and potash projects are tied to decarbonization and electrification trends, and what that could mean for future demand for BHP Group's output.
• The role of long life, low cost assets and disciplined capital spending in supporting earnings resilience and BHP Group's capacity for shareholder returns.
• Key risks around iron ore concentration, project execution, regulation, inflation and ESG pressures that could affect margins and long term profitability.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BHP.AX.

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