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Why BHP’s potash and energy moves matter for the stock

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) is drawing fresh attention as investors weigh its plans for a tighter global potash market, fresh comments on energy security versus decarbonization, and an upcoming CEO transition tied to copper and potash growth.

See our latest analysis for BHP Group.

BHP’s recent potash commentary, CEO succession and portfolio reshaping come as the share price sits at A$50.12, with a 9.86% 90 day share price return and a 75.02% five year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has been building over the longer term.

If you are looking beyond a single miner and want to see how other producers are positioned for the next leg in commodities, now could be a good time to check out 8 top copper producer stocks

With BHP Trading at A$50.12, showing a 32.10% 1 year total return and sitting about 6% below the average analyst price target, is the market still underestimating its potash and copper pivot, or is it already pricing in years of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 9.7% Undervalued

At A$50.12, the narrative fair value of A$55.50 implies upside in BHP’s potash and copper pivot that the current share price is not fully reflecting.

Significant exposure to future-facing commodities such as copper and potash positions BHP to benefit from increased demand driven by electrification, urbanization, and the global energy transition. This is likely to support long-term revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is baked into that potash and copper story? The narrative focuses on future cash flows, capital discipline and margin resilience. The full breakdown connects long life assets, new projects and long dated demand trends into one valuation pitch.

Result: Fair Value of A$55.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there is still clear downside risk if Chinese steel demand weakens faster than expected, or if Jansen faces further cost blowouts and timeline slippage.

Find out about the key risks to this BHP Group narrative.

Another Take on BHP’s Valuation

The user narrative sees BHP as 9.7% undervalued at A$50.12, using a fair value of A$55.50. On earnings, though, the picture is less forgiving. BHP trades on a 17.3x P/E, richer than the Australian metals and mining industry at 12.3x and above its own DCF estimate of A$38.96, which points to an overvalued outcome instead. For you, that raises a simple question: which story deserves more weight, the upbeat narrative or the more cautious cash flow model?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

BHP Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026

Next Steps

With a mix of optimism around BHP’s growth plans and clear risks on the table, it makes sense to check the numbers yourself and move quickly to your own view, starting with 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BHP.AX.

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