FEATURE

As hopes grow for an end to the war in Iran, commodity analysts at Jefferies suggest that investors pivot to companies that could benefit from a pullback in oil prices and a pickup in global economic activity if the cease-fire becomes permanent. The best way to play a potential peace trade? Copper miners.

Copper prices are highly correlated to economic activity. The metal is a key component in many industrial and consumer electronics goods. And copper wiring is a critical part of data centers, meaning that the metal is benefiting from the explosion in demand for artifcial-intelligence technology.

As such, the Jefferies analysts said in a report Thursday that they recommend “tiptoeing back” to copper—and top miners such as recent Barron’s stock pick 

Freeport-McMoRan
Anglo American
Teck Resources

and

First Quantum Minerals

Copper mining stocks have already rebounded after taking a hit in March due to concerns about the war.

Freeport-McMoRan

for example, is up nearly 15% in the past month and back near its highs for the year. But the Jefferies analysts still think there is more upside ahead.

“We would expect cyclical industrial metals to perform well ona path to peace. Copper had underperformed due to its demand being highly sensitive to changes in economic growth,” the Jefferies analysts said in the report, adding that the metal “should outperform if we have sustained de-escalation.”

“[Copper] is basically a binary outcome with risk now skewed to the upside once again,” the Jefferies analysts said. They think that copper prices, which are down slightly since the war began in late February, may not rebound immediately due to “elevated demand risk for the near-term,” but they added they are “bullish over a 6+ month horizon, and risk to our estimates is to the upside.”

Gold is another metal that could catch a bid if the economic picture improves, especially if the dollar strengthens a bit. Gold has been incredibly volatile as of late, pulling back after surging last year along with silver and some other precious metals.

The Jefferies analysts noted that gold, like copper, is a “peace” commodity that should benefit from a more stable backdrop for oil. Both commodities could do well compared with “war commodities” such as coal, aluminum and iron ore that have benefited from the recent turmoil in the Middle East.

Gold is a bit trickier than copper since it’s more of a speculative bet and is not tied to industrial demand the way that copper is. Even silver has more uses than gold, as a component in solar panels, medical devices and electric vehicles, for example.

That being said, gold may have taken too big a hit in the first quarter of this year. Gold strategists at

State Street

Investment Management said in a recent report that “the oil price shock may be a temporary gold market headwind…but could exacerbate structurally bullish tailwinds in the medium term.”

State Street said that as oil prices slide, worries about Fed rate hikes have diminished. That could mean that gold prices will start to climb again, especially if it regains its status as a haven investment in what are still uncertain times. The State Street strategists argue that gold, currently hovering around $4,800 an ounce, could climb back above $5,000 if oil prices fall to around $80 to $85 a barrel and stay there.

Another bullish sign for gold? State Street pointed out that China’s central bank has been buying the dip in the metal, adding that this activity “illustrates gold as a global asset, underpinned by regional supply/demand dynamics and not just Fed policy or US risk sentiment.”

If gold continues to rebound, that should bode well for top miners like

Newmont

another 2026 Barrron’s stock pick, as well. Newmont, like Freeport-McMoRan, has already started to make a comeback. Following a drop in early to mid March, the stock is up 6% in the past month.

So if you think that the war in Iran is nearing an end, keep an eye on copper, gold and the miners of those metals. They should continue to rally if there is more stability in the Middle East, especially if oil prices pull back further.

Write to Paul R. La Monica at paul.lamonica@barrons.com