Freeport-McMoRan cut its copper sales volume outlook by 300 million pounds for 2026 and 2027 based on a slower ramp-up of its Grasberg mining complex following September's tragic mud rush incident. FCX, which had been near a buy point, fell sharply on Thursday morning, despite better-than-expected earnings.

However, Anglo American and merger partner Teck Resources jumped past a buy point, while Southern Copper climbed close to a buy point.

FCX Copper, Gold Sales Outlook

The slower recovery for Freeport is among a series of industry setbacks for copper supply that have helped to boost copper prices above $6 a pound from around $4.50 in August.

Freeport now expects sales of 3.1 billion pounds of copper in 2026 and 3.8 billion in 2027. Both outlooks are 300 million pounds lower than its January outlook of 3.4 billion pounds in 2026 and 4.1 billion in 2027.

However, Freeport now sees 4.2 billion pounds of copper sales in 2028, up from its prior outlook of 4.1 billion.

"The projected ramp-up schedule has been adjusted to incorporate modifications to material handling systems," Freeport said.

Freeport also cut its outlook for gold sales to 650,000 ounces from 800,000 ounces for 2026, and to 1 million ounces from 1.2 million in 2027.

FCX Earnings

First-quarter results weren't hurt by the slower ramp. In fact, copper and gold sales volumes exceeded the January Q1 outlook.

Freeport posted Q1 earnings of 57 cents a share, up 137.5% from a year ago and 10 cents ahead of forecasts, according to FactSet. Revenue grew 8.8% to $6.234 billion, more than $500 million ahead of estimates.

The average realized price for copper was $5.78 a pound, up from $4.44 a pound a year ago. That offset a 25% drop in sales volume due to the Grasberg mining tragedy. In 2025 a landslide and mud rush killed seven workers at the company's Grasberg mine in Indonesia.

FCX Stock

FCX slumped 11% to 62.63 on Thursday morning. Shares rose 2.8% to 70.36 on Wednesday ahead of earnings, finishing just above a 69.75 buy point.

Investor's Business Daily recommends an options strategy to minimize risk when buying stocks around earnings.

Anglo American jumped 4.8% to 26.11, clearing a 25.91 buy point from a cup base. Teck darted ahead 5.8% to 62.68, also clearing a buy point. Canada's government has approved a merger, but final approval isn't expected until China and South Korea weigh in.

Southern Copper rose 0.7% to 188.96, within 5% of a 198.93 cup-with-handle buy point.

Be sure to read IBD's The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.

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