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• If you are wondering whether Southern Copper at around US$187 per share still offers value or if the easy money has already been made, this article breaks down what the current price might be implying about the stock.
• The stock shows a mixed near term picture, with a 5.2% gain over the last 7 days, a 1.8% decline over 30 days, and stronger returns of 26.9% year to date and 136.4% over 1 year.
• Recent coverage has focused on Southern Copper’s position in the copper market and how investors are weighing long-term demand themes against ongoing sector risks. This helps explain the sharp share price moves over the last few years. Ongoing interest in the stock keeps attention on whether the current valuation still aligns with those expectations.
• Despite those returns, Southern Copper currently scores 0 out of 6 on Simply Wall St’s valuation checks, as shown in its valuation score. Next, you will see how different valuation methods assess the stock and then finish with a more complete way to think about its value.

Southern Copper scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Southern Copper Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business might be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to today using a required rate of return.

For Southern Copper, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $3.45b. Using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, analysts and Simply Wall St projections estimate Free Cash Flow rising to $7.23b in 2030, with a series of annual forecasts and extrapolated figures between 2026 and 2035.

When all those projected cash flows are discounted back and summed, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $167.90 per share. Compared with a current share price around $187, this implies the stock is roughly 11.5% above the DCF estimate, so on this measure the shares screen as overvalued rather than cheap.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Southern Copper may be overvalued by 11.5%. Discover 64 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

SCCO Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Southern Copper.

Approach 2: Southern Copper Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Southern Copper, the P/E ratio is a useful yardstick because it links what you pay per share to the earnings the business is currently generating. Investors usually accept a higher or lower P/E depending on what they expect for future earnings growth and how risky those earnings appear to be.

Southern Copper trades on a P/E of about 35.7x, compared with an average of 21.4x for the broader Metals and Mining industry and around 29.6x for its peer group. On simple comparisons, the shares sit at a premium to both the sector and peers.

Simply Wall St also uses a proprietary “Fair Ratio” to estimate what a more suitable P/E might be once factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk profile are taken into account. This tends to be more tailored than a basic peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for company specific characteristics instead of assuming all miners deserve the same multiple.

For Southern Copper, the Fair Ratio is 27.1x, which is below the current 35.7x P/E. That gap suggests the shares may be pricing in stronger conditions than the Fair Ratio supports.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:SCCO P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Southern Copper Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives are introduced, which let you attach your own story about Southern Copper to the numbers by linking a view on its future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast and then to a fair value that can be easily compared with the current share price on Simply Wall St’s Community page. On that page, Narratives update automatically as new news or earnings arrive. One investor might lean toward the higher US$235 fair value story built around production growth and richer future P/E assumptions, while another might align with the lower US$65.52 view that focuses on project delays, softer demand and a lower future multiple. This gives you a clear framework to decide how comfortable you are with the gap between your fair value and today’s market price.

For Southern Copper however we’ll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Southern Copper Narratives:

🐂 Southern Copper Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish narrative: about US$233.07 per share.

Implied discount to that fair value at the last close of US$187.17: roughly 19.7% undervalued.

Revenue growth assumption used in this narrative: about 13.45% a year.

• This narrative focuses on major projects such as Tía María and Los Chancas, plus green technology demand and supply chain shifts, as key drivers for higher copper volumes and sales over time.
• It assumes Southern Copper can keep a very low cost base, improve margins and use ESG and community investment to support its operations and valuation.
• It builds in higher future earnings, expanding profit margins and a richer future P/E multiple, while acknowledging meaningful country, project and environmental risks that could challenge the thesis.

🐻 Southern Copper Bear Case

Fair value in this more cautious narrative: about US$153.27 per share.

Implied premium to that fair value at the last close of US$187.17: roughly 22.1% overvalued.

Revenue growth assumption used in this narrative: about 4.58% a year.

• This narrative emphasizes that Southern Copper has large growth projects and healthy margins, but that the current share price already bakes in a lot of that good news.
• It highlights risks around tariffs, higher operating costs, very large capex plans and social or operational disruptions that could pressure cash flow and returns.
• It uses a lower fair value and a future P/E that still sits above the wider US Metals and Mining industry, suggesting limited upside if expectations cool from current levels.

If you want to go beyond the previews and see how these assumptions translate into detailed earnings paths, risk scenarios and valuation ranges, you can read the full narratives side by side and decide which one, if either, lines up with your own expectations for Southern Copper.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Southern Copper? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:SCCO 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SCCO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com