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• If you are wondering whether Freeport-McMoRan at around US$61.48 still offers value, the key question is how that price compares with what the business might be worth.
• The stock has been volatile recently, with a 10% decline over the last 7 days, an 8.9% gain over the last 30 days, and returns of 18.4% year to date and 65.3% over the last year.
• Recent headlines around Freeport-McMoRan have focused on its role as a major materials and copper producer, alongside broader market conversations about commodities and infrastructure demand. These themes help explain why sentiment around the stock has shifted at different points this year.
• Right now, Freeport-McMoRan scores a 2 out of 6 valuation check result. The sections that follow will walk through what that means using common valuation approaches, then finish with a broader way to think about the company’s value beyond just the headline metrics.

Freeport-McMoRan scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Freeport-McMoRan Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model looks at the cash Freeport-McMoRan could generate in the future and then discounts those projected cash flows back to today to estimate what the entire business might be worth in dollars.

For Freeport-McMoRan, the model used here is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $678.0 million. Analysts provide explicit Free Cash Flow estimates for the next few years, and Simply Wall St then extends those forecasts further out. Under this framework, projected Free Cash Flow for 2030 is $10.2b, with a path that runs through figures such as $4.6b in 2026 and $8.3b in 2027, all converted into today’s dollars using a discount rate.

Aggregating these discounted cash flows results in an estimated intrinsic value of about $95.24 per share, compared with the recent share price around $61.48. That implies the stock is 35.4% below this DCF estimate, which points to a material gap between price and the model’s valuation.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Freeport-McMoRan is undervalued by 35.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 54 more high quality undervalued stocks.

FCX Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Freeport-McMoRan.

Approach 2: Freeport-McMoRan Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. Investors usually accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger growth or see the business as relatively resilient, and look for a lower P/E when growth expectations or perceived risk are less favorable.

Freeport-McMoRan currently trades on a P/E of 40.2x. That is above the Metals and Mining industry average of 22.3x and also higher than the peer group average of 26.6x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework estimates that, given factors such as Freeport-McMoRan’s earnings profile, industry, margins, size and risk characteristics, a P/E of about 33.3x would be more in line with those fundamentals.

This Fair Ratio is designed to be more tailored than a simple comparison with industry or peers, because it adjusts for company specific attributes rather than assuming all miners deserve the same multiple. Compared with this Fair Ratio of 33.3x, the current 40.2x P/E sits meaningfully higher, suggesting the shares trade at a premium to what this model would indicate.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:FCX P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Freeport-McMoRan Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, and on Simply Wall St that starts with Narratives. These let you attach a clear story about Freeport-McMoRan to the hard numbers by setting your own view on future revenue, earnings and margins, then linking that story to a forecast and to a fair value that you can easily compare with the current price. This can help inform decisions about when to buy or sell, all within an accessible tool on the Community page that updates as new news or earnings arrive. For example, one investor might build a more cautious Freeport-McMoRan Narrative with revenue growing about 4.7% a year and earnings at roughly US$2.3b by 2028. Another might use a more optimistic Narrative with revenue growth near 17.7% and earnings around US$8.9b by 2029. The platform will translate each view into a different fair value that adjusts over time as fresh information comes in.

For Freeport-McMoRan however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Freeport-McMoRan Narratives:

Each narrative applies a different set of assumptions to the same business, which gives you a clear range for what the shares might be worth and why. Use them as starting points, then adjust the inputs to match your own view on copper demand, margins and risk.

🐂 Freeport-McMoRan Bull Case

Fair value: US$81.00

Price vs this fair value: about 24.1% below the narrative fair value at the last close of US$61.48

Revenue growth assumption: 17.7% a year

• Frames Freeport-McMoRan as a key U.S. copper supplier with premium pricing, supported by energy transition and infrastructure demand.
• Assumes higher margins over time, helped by large scale assets, cost focused projects such as leaching technologies and an integrated global footprint.
• Highlights risks around regulation, environmental pressure, ore grades and permitting, but still arrives at a higher fair value based on stronger earnings and cash flow assumptions.

🐻 Freeport-McMoRan Bear Case

Fair value: US$44.08

Price vs this fair value: about 39.5% above the narrative fair value at the last close of US$61.48

Revenue growth assumption: 4% a year

• Focuses on the cyclicality of copper prices, an unstable dividend record and past share price performance as key watchpoints.
• Builds in solid but more moderate expectations for revenue and earnings growth by 2029, with earnings still closely tied to commodity cycles.
• Sees potential upside from themes like EVs, AI and green infrastructure, plus potential U.S. copper policy support, but applies a lower fair value to reflect these risks and more cautious growth inputs.

If you want to see the full range of views on Freeport-McMoRan and how other investors are modelling copper prices, margins and fair value, you can step through the wider set of community narratives and decide which story you think is closer to reality.

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Freeport-McMoRan on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you’ll be alerted when the story evolves.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Freeport-McMoRan? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:FCX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FCX.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com