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• If you are wondering whether BHP Group at A$61.24 is still offering value or if most of the opportunity is already reflected in the price, it helps to look past the headlines and focus on what different valuation methods are really saying about the stock.
• The share price has pulled back around 1.7% over the last week, after rising about 5.7% over the past month, 33.8% year to date and 66.9% over the past year, which can change how the market is weighing both potential and risk.
• Recent coverage has focused on BHP Group as one of the largest global resources companies, with attention on how its exposure to key commodities and ongoing portfolio decisions are shaping expectations for cash generation and capital returns. These themes often influence how investors think about what a fair price looks like for the stock at any given time.
• Despite that backdrop, BHP Group currently records a value score of 1 out of 6. The next sections will compare what standard valuation approaches suggest, and then introduce a more complete way to think about value that brings all of these signals together.

BHP Group scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: BHP Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a stock might be worth by projecting the cash it could generate in the future, then discounting those cash flows back to today to reflect time and risk.

For BHP Group, the latest twelve month free cash flow stands at about $10.33b. Analysts have provided cash flow estimates out to 2030, and Simply Wall St extends those further using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model. For example, projected free cash flow in 2030 is $11.36b, with intermediate annual projections between 2026 and 2035 ranging from roughly $8.51b to $14.11b before discounting.

When all of those projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the model suggests an intrinsic value of about $40.93 per share. Compared with the current share price of A$61.24, this DCF implies that the stock is trading at a premium of around 49.6%, which indicates that BHP Group appears expensive on this measure.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests BHP Group may be overvalued by 49.6%. Discover 6 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

BHP Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for BHP Group.

Approach 2: BHP Group Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to see how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings, which is often how the market anchors its view of value.

What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth potential and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually points to a lower, more cautious P/E.

BHP Group currently trades on a P/E of 21.40x. That sits above the Metals and Mining industry average of 12.02x, but below the peer group average of 30.68x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for BHP Group is 20.13x, which is a proprietary estimate of the P/E that might be expected given factors such as earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks.

Because the Fair Ratio blends these fundamentals, it can be a more tailored yardstick than a simple comparison with broad industry or peer averages, which do not adjust for differences in growth, risk or profitability.

Compared with the Fair Ratio of 20.13x, the actual P/E of 21.40x suggests that BHP Group is trading somewhat above this indicated level, so it appears overvalued on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUED

ASX:BHP P/E Ratio as at Jun 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your BHP Group Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach a clear story about BHP Group to the numbers by linking your view of its copper, iron ore and potash future to specific revenue, earnings and margin forecasts. The platform then turns these into a Fair Value you can compare directly with today’s price to judge whether the stock looks attractive or stretched. Each Narrative lives on the Community page, updates automatically when fresh news or earnings arrive, and can reflect very different perspectives. For example, one investor values BHP Group at A$31.79, another at A$121.48, and others in between at A$62.55, A$55.62, A$55.50, A$57.64 and A$38.25.

For BHP Group however, we’ll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading BHP Group Narratives:

🐂 BHP Group Bull Case

Fair value: A$121.48

Implied discount to this fair value at A$61.24: about 49.6% below the narrative fair value

Revenue growth assumption: 28%

• Frames BHP Group as a large scale, low cost producer of iron ore, copper and metallurgical coal supporting global infrastructure and the energy transition.
• Highlights FY2024 revenue of about US$55.7b and underlying attributable profit of US$13.7b, with iron ore at around 50% of revenue and copper at about 33%.
• Sees strong cash generation from sizeable iron ore volumes and rising copper exposure, while flagging that earnings remain sensitive to commodity price cycles, especially Chinese driven iron ore demand.

🐻 BHP Group Bear Case

Fair value: A$55.62

Implied premium to this fair value at A$61.24: about 10.1% above the narrative fair value

Revenue growth assumption: 1.17%

• Points to a solid pipeline in copper and potash and ongoing Asian and Indian infrastructure demand, but balances this against concentrated exposure to iron ore and Western Australian operations.
• Builds in analyst forecasts that revenue edges higher, margins rise from about 19.0% to 23.6%, and earnings reach US$13.2b by around 2029, with a future P/E of 19.6x and a discount rate of 8.65%.
• Emphasizes risks around China steel demand, project execution, regulation, inflation and ESG requirements, and notes that the consensus fair value of A$55.62, with targets between A$39.79 and A$68.92, sits modestly below the current A$61.24 price.

If you want to see how different investors are turning these assumptions into full valuation stories that update with new data, the wider community range for BHP Group is only a few clicks away, including bull, bear and more balanced Narratives that sit between these two anchors.

Do you think there’s more to the story for BHP Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

ASX:BHP 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical datan and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or yourn financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.n Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.n Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BHP.AX.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com