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BHP Group’s fair value estimate has shifted from A$51.98 to A$52.50, putting a small spotlight on how analysts are recalibrating their expectations. This move sits within a wide spread of ratings from Sell to Buy, with price targets in multiple currencies reflecting different views on how well BHP’s current share price lines up with its commodity exposure and earnings power. Read on to see how these changing targets fit into the broader story and what you can watch to keep up with the evolving narrative.

Analyst Price Targets don't always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value BHP Group.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying 🐂 Bullish Takeaways

• Argus set a US$90 price target, up from US$68, and keeps a Buy rating, highlighting long term fundamentals and an improving outlook as Chinese economic conditions are described as stabilizing.
• Barclays lifted its target to 2,770 GBp from 2,500 GBp with an Equal Weight rating, while Citi moved to 2,800 GBp from 2,600 GBp and stays Neutral, signaling that several firms see room in their models for higher valuation support.
• Deutsche Bank pushed its target to 2,400 GBp from 2,350 GBp and keeps a Hold rating, reflecting incremental adjustments rather than a sharp reset of expectations.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

• Berenberg raised its target to 2,600 GBp from 2,300 GBp but maintains a Sell rating, underscoring concern that the current share price still screens as demanding against its assumptions.
• JPMorgan most recently trimmed its target to 2,500 GBp from 2,650 GBp and remains Neutral, pointing to a more cautious stance after earlier upward revisions.
• Bernstein reduced its target to US$48 from US$49.50 and keeps a Market Perform rating, stressing that commodity selection and valuation are central to return potential in large miners like BHP.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!

ASX:BHP 1-Year Stock Price Chart

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What's in the News

• BHP is reported to be waiting on the outcome of Rio Tinto's talks to acquire Glencore and is not currently planning a rival bid, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• Rio Tinto's discussions to purchase Glencore are described as putting BHP under pressure to respond, with the potential deal viewed as a possible catalyst for large scale transactions in 2026.
• BHP and Rio Tinto have agreed non binding memoranda of understanding to study joint extraction of up to 200 million tonnes of iron ore from neighbouring Pilbara deposits, including potential processing of BHP ore through Rio Tinto facilities.
• BHP updated cost and schedule estimates for the Jansen Stage 1 potash project to a total expected investment of US$8.4b and first production timing in mid 2027, and reported quarterly and half year copper and iron ore production to 31 December 2025.

How This Changes the Fair Value For BHP Group

• Fair value estimate in A$ terms has adjusted from A$51.98 to A$52.50.
• Assumed revenue growth rate in US$ terms has shifted from 0.74% to 0.90%.
• Forecast net profit margin has moved from 24.60% to 24.42%.
• Future P/E multiple has changed from 17.44x to 17.57x.
• Discount rate has edged from 8.33% to 8.31%.

Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives link BHP Group's business story to analyst forecasts and fair value in one place. They refresh as new earnings, project updates, and commodity news are incorporated.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on BHP Group to stay up to date on:

• How copper and potash projects are expected to tie into decarbonization and electrification demand.
• What long life, low cost assets and disciplined capital management could mean for earnings resilience and cash flow.
• Key risks around iron ore concentration, China exposure, project execution, regulation, inflation, and ESG pressures.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BHP.AX.

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