Silver prices climbed sharply this past Tuesday, rising to a fresh 13-year high as rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East led to increased demand for perceived safe-haven assets. The rally pushed silver above $37 per ounce, outpacing gold in a rare divergence that has drawn attention from traders and analysts. Spot silver gained as much as 2.2% to reach $37.26 per ounce, the highest intraday level since early 2012. In the futures market, silver contracts traded in New York also rose, peaking at $37.33 per ounce during the session.

The surge follows heightened market speculation that the United States is preparing for more direct involvement in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. That speculation, combined with broader regional instability, has injected fresh volatility into global markets, driving renewed interest in precious metals.

Silver’s Outperformance and Market Response

The price movement represents a continuation of silver’s recent outperformance relative to gold. While both metals are historically viewed as safe-haven assets during times of global uncertainty, the price of gold remained comparatively stable on Tuesday.

Spot gold edged up only 0.2%, trading just under $3,390 per ounce. The muted response comes despite mounting concerns about a potential escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, which some market participants feared could destabilize energy markets and increase broader geopolitical risk.

The divergence between the two metals has now extended into a fifth consecutive trading session. According to historical data compiled by BullionVault, such behavior is relatively uncommon. Over the past 50 years, gold and silver have moved in the same direction on approximately 78.9% of all trading days. That correlation remains high even in more recent periods, with the two metals trading in tandem on 75.7% of trading days over the past 12 months.

This recent break from historical norms has prompted close scrutiny among market analysts.

Some analysts suggest the differing price action may reflect distinct investor bases for each metal. Silver, often viewed as both an industrial and investment metal, is influenced by a wider range of factors, including industrial demand, inflation expectations, and overall market volatility. Gold, by contrast, tends to move more directly in response to macroeconomic signals and shifts in central bank policy.

Despite the lackluster performance on the day, institutional views on gold’s broader trajectory remain largely unchanged. A report from Swiss bank UBS, cited by BullionVault, described gold’s recent consolidation as a temporary pause rather than a reversal.

The widening gap in performance has also pulled down the gold-to-silver price ratio — a key metric used by traders to assess relative valuation — to its lowest level in three months. This ratio, which indicates how many ounces of silver are equivalent in value to one ounce of gold, had hovered near 85 in recent weeks but has now declined as silver’s price gains outpace those of gold.

A falling ratio is typically interpreted as a sign of growing investor interest in silver or waning enthusiasm for gold, although the metric is also influenced by supply-side and industrial dynamics. Analysts note that silver’s dual role as a monetary and industrial metal makes it more sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, particularly inflation trends, manufacturing activity, and energy prices.

Geopolitical Context and Safe-Haven Demand

The latest surge in silver comes as global investors assess the potential impact of escalating violence in the Middle East. Reports of U.S. military mobilization and rising tensions between Israel and Iran have added to market volatility, with broader implications for commodity markets, including oil and metals.

While traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar have also seen inflows, the strength in silver — absent a corresponding surge in gold — marks an unusual pattern in market behavior. Some analysts suggest that investors may be positioning for broader economic fallout that could affect supply chains, energy prices, and industrial activity, all of which impact silver more directly than gold.

Looking ahead, analysts remain divided on whether silver’s current momentum can be sustained and whether gold will eventually follow. Much may depend on developments in the Middle East, as well as upcoming economic data and central bank decisions.

While silver’s technical breakout above $37 has attracted speculative interest, the underlying drivers — including inflation expectations, geopolitical risk, and investor sentiment — remain fluid. Meanwhile, gold’s muted response may reflect a market still weighing the depth and duration of current geopolitical risks.

The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a licensed professional for investment advice. The author is not an insider or shareholder of any of the companies mentioned above.