I think that was it…the correction in gold that I called mid last week. Yes, it’s still overbought. The drop was only about $50 per ounce, top to bottom. But I think the uptrend may now resume. Because this is not a gold bear market, dear reader. It’s a bull.
The longs who sold in expectation of the kind of correction we had in the bear market—where gold would grind lower every day for weeks while the gold stocks fell faster—are out and wanting to get back in. The shorts who pressed their bets the last few days may soon regret their actions.
Why? Because gold is the only game in town. The S&P rally is stalling at its 200 DMA, the economy continues to weaken, corporate earnings are in a serious downturn and stocks are still an eyelash short of all-time highs. The bad news is not priced in, dear reader. And now it looks like we have buyer exhaustion. Volume backed off again for a second straight day today (Tuesday, the 15th, 0.85 bln on the NYSE and 1.6 bln on the NASDAQ). Breadth was nearly 3 to 1 negative on both exchanges. This is a market that, if it isn’t going up, can go down in a hurry. And it isn’t going up.
The Japanese did not come up with more stimulus, the ECB shot its wad last week and tomorrow the Fed will do nothing. Next up is first quarter earnings preceded by a growing list of companies pre-announcing. They don’t pre-announce good news. So, look out below. The quiet period between corporate reporting periods is coming to a close. The holiday is over and so is this rally, in my opinion.
So, back to gold. The upside risks now looks greater than the downside risks, unlike last week. I may be early in making this call, but it’s better than being late. The move last month was big and fast. That’s how it is in bull markets.