Last week, legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller recommended gold as the asset class to own and declared the “bull market in stocks is exhausted”. That’s just what I wrote four months ago. Druckenmiller asks “what was the one asset you did not want to own when I started Duquesne in 1981? Hint…it has traded for 5000 years and for the first time has a positive carry in many parts of the globe as bankers are now experimenting with the absurd notion of negative interest rates. Some regard it as a metal, we regard it as a currency and it remains our largest currency allocation.”
Today, we learn that another prominent hedge fund billionaire, Elliott Management’s Paul Singer, wrote in his latest letter to investors dated April 28 that the first quarter, gold’s best quarter in 30 years, “is probably just the beginning of a rebound as global investors weigh the ramifications of unprecedented monetary easing on.”
As reported by Bloomberg, Singer said that “it makes a great deal of sense to own gold. Other investors may be finally starting to agree….Investors have increasingly started processing the fact that the world’s central bankers are completely focused on debasing their currencies.” Further, he said that “if investors’ confidence in central bankers’ judgment continues to weaken, the effect on gold could be very powerful. We believe the March quarter’s price action could represent something closer to the beginning of such a move than to the end.”
Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s Solita Marcelli, Head of Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities, told CNBC that after seeing three back-to-back years of losses, the precious metal has rallied 20 percent in 2016. “[We think] $1,400 is very much in the cards this year,” according to Marcelli. “Gold is a great portfolio hedge in an environment where the world’s government bonds are yielding at historically low levels,” he said.
As CNBC adds, gold will remain attractive in a world where bonds and U.S. rates may cease to be the main risk-off asset. “Gold is looking more and more attractive every single day,” Marcelli concludes. “As a non-yielding asset, it has a minimal storage cost, so when you compare it to negative-yielding assets, it actually has a positive carry.”
In a world with over $7 trillion in negative yielding bonds, finally someone else besides me has done the math.