• Wondering if Southern Copper is still a buy after its massive run, or if you are late to the party? This breakdown will help you decide whether the current price makes sense or is getting ahead of itself.

• The stock has climbed 1.1% over the last week, 14.9% over the past month, and 61.9% year to date, adding to a 65.3% gain over 1 year and roughly 195.0% over 5 years.

• These moves have come as investors focus on copper as a critical metal for electrification and infrastructure, with Southern Copper often mentioned in commentary about long term supply constraints and rising project pipelines. At the same time, market chatter around potential shifts in interest rate expectations and industrial demand has added extra momentum and volatility to copper producers in general.

• Despite that excitement, Southern Copper currently scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. This suggests it screens as fully valued or expensive across several traditional metrics. In the sections that follow we will unpack those methods, then finish by looking at a more nuanced way to think about what this stock might really be worth.

Southern Copper scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Southern Copper Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today, using a required rate of return. For Southern Copper, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, built around its recent free cash flow of about $3.4 billion.

Analysts expect free cash flow to keep growing, with estimates and extrapolations pointing to around $5.1 billion by 2029, and further growth into the early 2030s based on more moderate assumed rates. Simply Wall St uses detailed annual projections for the next decade, combining analyst forecasts for the nearer years with its own growth assumptions further out.

When these future cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model suggests an intrinsic value of about $125.02 per share. Compared with the current share price, this implies Southern Copper is roughly 15.2% overvalued on a DCF basis. This suggests the market is already pricing in strong long term cash flow growth.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Southern Copper may be overvalued by 15.2%. Discover 914 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

SCCO Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Southern Copper.

Approach 2: Southern Copper Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies like Southern Copper, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a useful way to gauge whether investors are paying a reasonable price for each dollar of profit. In general, faster earnings growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher PE, while slower growth or higher risk should lead to a lower, more conservative multiple.

Southern Copper currently trades on a PE of about 30.9x, which is above both the Metals and Mining industry average of roughly 25.4x and the peer average of around 24.8x. That gap indicates the market is already assigning Southern Copper a premium relative to similar businesses.

Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio for the stock, which in this case is about 23.8x. This Fair Ratio represents the PE that would be expected given Southern Copper’s specific mix of earnings growth, profit margins, risk profile, industry, and market cap. Because it is tailored to the company rather than being a blunt comparison to peers, it offers a more nuanced benchmark. Comparing the current 30.9x PE to the 23.8x Fair Ratio suggests the shares are trading meaningfully above what those fundamentals justify.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:SCCO PE Ratio as at Dec 2025

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1466 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Southern Copper Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you write the story behind your numbers by linking your view of a company’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a fair value estimate, and ultimately a decision framework that updates dynamically as new information like news or earnings arrives.

With Narratives, you can quickly see whether your Fair Value for Southern Copper is above or below the current price, and then decide how you want to respond. You can also compare different perspectives, such as one investor who focuses on tight copper supply, major expansion projects and robust margins to arrive at a higher fair value near $128, versus another who worries more about project delays, tariffs and rising costs and therefore anchors closer to $67. This gives you a clear, numbers backed way to decide which story you believe and how to position your portfolio.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Southern Copper? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:SCCO 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SCCO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com