Chile is entering 2026 with a dense pipeline of copper developments at a time when global markets are increasingly focused on the risk of supply shortfalls. Thirteen copper projects across the country, representing an estimated $14.8 billion in total investment, are expected to reach key milestones next year as prices rise on concerns that new supply will struggle to keep pace with demand. According to official figures, seven of these projects are slated to begin operations in 2026. Together, they are expected to add close to 500,000 tonnes of annual copper capacity and are backed by approximately $7.1 billion in investment. These projects are concentrated within Chile’s existing mining regions and include a mix of expansions, infrastructure upgrades, and new developments.

Among the projects expected to start operations are Anglo American and Glencore’s Collahuasi infrastructure and productivity upgrades, collectively known as project C20+, as well as Codelco’s Rajo Inca structural project. Capstone Copper’s Mantos Blancos operation is also on the list, alongside Andes Iron’s Dominga project, which has been the subject of prolonged public debate and legal scrutiny. While these projects have already cleared major regulatory and technical hurdles, their contribution to supply will be gradual rather than immediate. In parallel, another six copper developments are planning to begin construction in 2026. These projects account for an additional $7.7 billion in anticipated spending and reflect copper’s growing strategic importance in energy systems, digital infrastructure, and industrial technology. Among them are BHP’s Spence project and Capstone Copper’s Santo Domingo development. Unlike projects already nearing production, these construction-stage initiatives still face permitting, environmental review, and potential legal challenges.

The timing of these additions is critical in the context of global supply-demand balances. According to the International Copper Study Group, the copper market is projected to face a deficit of around 150,000 tonnes in 2026. Guzmán noted that this gap could widen if Chilean projects are delayed or fail to progress as planned. Analysts and consultants point out that Chile’s performance remains central to the global copper outlook, given its position as the world’s largest producer. Even modest delays in new supply can have outsized impacts on prices under these conditions.

Within Chile, community relations is also the main risk facing the 2026 project slate, rather than copper prices or changes in the political leadership. While projects approaching production have already navigated key approvals, those that are set to begin construction still face ongoing regulatory processes. In some cases, these processes could extend into the court system, creating uncertainty around timelines and costs.

Investment levels will also play a determining role in whether projected output gains materialize. Cochilco expects Chile to attract $105 billion in mining investment from this year through 2034. This estimate includes not only new projects but also expansions at long-established operations, such as BHP’s Escondida mine, the world’s largest copper producer. Sustained capital inflows are seen as essential to offset declining ore grades and maintain production over the long term. Political developments have added another layer to market expectations. The recent victory of ultra-conservative former congressman José Antonio Kast, who is set to take office as Chile’s next president in March, has been interpreted by investors as a shift toward a more pro-investment and pro-development policy environment. Market participants said Kast’s election signals a departure from recent uncertainty around regulation and fiscal policy.

Industry observers expect the incoming administration to focus on streamlining permitting and environmental approvals, reducing regulatory uncertainty, and providing greater fiscal stability. These measures could lower the perceived risk of mid-cycle changes to taxes or royalties, which have been a concern for mining investors in recent years. Kast’s emphasis on law and order is also seen as potentially reducing protests and operational disruptions that have affected mining activity, although some insiders noted that this approach could heighten tensions with certain local communities.

For the 13 copper projects expected to reach milestones in 2026, the political shift could result in faster decision-making, improved access to private and foreign capital, and a higher probability of moving from planning to execution within a favorable price environment. Several of the projects are already nearing production, while others remain at earlier stages where policy clarity can significantly influence timelines. These developments are unfolding against a backdrop of record copper prices. Copper has risen nearly 40% this year, reaching a new all-time high above $12,000 per tonne on Dec. 23 as concerns about supply constraints intensified. Part of the recent price strength has been attributed to stockpiling activity in the United States, where companies have accelerated shipments of copper cathodes into domestic warehouses ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper that could be introduced in 2027.

As Chile moves toward 2026, the convergence of high prices, ambitious investment plans, political change, and persistent social and regulatory challenges underscores the complexity of translating project pipelines into actual supply. While the country stands to benefit from a bullish copper market, the extent of that benefit will depend on how effectively projects progress from approval to construction and, ultimately, to sustained production.