The copper price rally continued early Tuesday morning, then lost momentum, amid hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal, easing dollar and market positioning for a near-term decision on expanding Trump tariffs on the red metal. Mining stocks including BHP Group, Rio Tinto, Anglo American and Teck Resources trade near buy points, as does the United States Copper Index Fund, a copper stock ETF.

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The price of copper briefly rallied within 4% of an all-time high as markets brace for potential Trump tariffs news later this month, with demand already outpacing supply.

nCopper Pricen

Copper price futures climbed 1.1% to $6.42 a pound early Tuesday morning, before paring gains to less than 1%, trading near $6.36. On Friday, copper futures pulled back to $6.25, according to CME Group data.

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The slide late last week came as markets sold off amid a surge for the dollar and Treasury yields. The price of copper hit an intraday record of $6.71 a pound on May 13 and nearly revisited that peak a week ago before the hot May jobs report caused some turbulence.

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Copper has generally rallied as hopes brighten for a U.S.-Iran deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and avoids global recession. Supply shortages amid AI-fueled demand also are supporting the copper price, with the outlook for supply constrained by mining challenges encountered by Freeport-McMoRan and others.

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However, markets also are positioning in case the Trump administration opts for broader tariffs on copper imports. Last June, in making the case for tariffs on imports of semifinished and finished copper imports, the Commerce Department held off on tariffs for refined and unrefined copper, recommending that a 15% tariff on refined copper should take effect in January 2027.

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The Commerce Department is set to provide new guidance to the White House by June 30, as to whether a tariff on refined copper is needed. Commerce also could update its prior view that a 25% tariff should start in 2027 on copper input materials.

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Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that the market is pricing in 43% odds of a 15% tariff on refined copper being put in place by January 2027, according to an Investing.com article. That implies further room to run if the Commerce Department stands by last year's guidance.

nBHP, RIO, FCXn

Both copper mining stocks and copper price ETFs have seen up-and-down swings over the past two months as progress toward a U.S.-Iran ceasefire has ebbed and flowed, even as markets positioned for potential tariffs. Mining stocks including BHP, Rio and Anglo American have all slipped back into or below recent buy ranges, following May breakouts above buy points from cup-with-handle bases, according to MarketSurge.

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BHP rose 1.25%, Rio 0.75% and NGLOY 1.8% early Tuesday, before pulling back to narrow gains or declines. Teck Resources, which is being acquired by Anglo American, rose 1.1%, then reversed lower, trading around a 62.41 buy point from a cup base.

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FCX, which reduced its sales outlook in April due to a slower-than-expected recovery from last fall's mining disaster, added 3.4% early, then pared gains to continue hugging its 50-day moving average.

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Southern Copper cut an early 4% gain to 1%.

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The CPER ETF rose 1.6%, climbing in a buy range above a 37.66 cup-with-handle buy point. It then trimmed its gain to less than 1%.

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Be sure to read IBD's The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.

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