Get insights on thousands of stocks from the global community of over 7 million individual investors at Simply Wall St.

BHP Group now carries an updated fair value estimate of A$51.98, compared with A$51.72 previously, refining how analysts are recalibrating their price targets. Across London, Australia and the U.S., recent target moves in US$ and GBp, along with mixed Buy to Sell ratings, underpin this shift as firms respond to revised views on revenue, margins and the broader commodity environment. As you read on, you will see how to track these changing calls and what they might suggest for your own view on BHP.

Stay updated as the Fair Value for BHP Group shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on BHP Group.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying 🐂 Bullish Takeaways

• Argus lifted its BHP Group target to US$90 from US$68 while keeping a Buy rating, pointing to what it views as supportive long term fundamentals and potential benefits from global economic growth.
• Argus also highlights that pressure on some commodities has weighed on earnings power and dividends, but it sees conditions improving as the Chinese economy stabilizes, which it views as a positive setup for BHP.
• Citi raised its BHP target to 2,800 GBp from 2,600 GBp and maintains a Neutral stance, which still reflects a higher valuation anchor for the shares in its model.
• Barclays moved its target up to 2,770 GBp from 2,500 GBp and keeps an Equal Weight rating, signalling that its updated work supports a higher fair value range even without a positive rating tilt.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

• Berenberg increased its target to 2,600 GBp from 2,300 GBp but reiterates a Sell rating, suggesting concern that, in its view, the market price already embeds generous expectations relative to its assessment of BHP’s revenue, margins and commodity exposure.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!

ASX:BHP 1-Year Stock Price Chart

We've flagged 1 risk for BHP Group. See which could impact your investment.

What's in the News

• BHP is reported to be waiting on the outcome of Rio Tinto's talks to acquire Glencore and is not currently planning a rival bid for the Swiss group, according to people familiar with the discussions.
• Reporting on Rio Tinto's interest in Glencore suggests the potential transaction is putting BHP under pressure to respond, given the possible scale of the deal and its relevance to global mining peers.
• BHP updated its fiscal 2026 production guidance, with copper guided to 1,900 kt to 2,000 kt, iron ore to 258 Mt to 269 Mt, steelmaking coal to 36 Mt to 40 Mt, and energy coal to 14 Mt to 16 Mt.
• The company completed a review of the Jansen Stage 1 potash project, confirming a revised total investment estimate of US$8.4b, an expected production rate of about 4.15 Mtpa, and first production targeted for mid calendar 2027.

How This Changes the Fair Value For BHP Group

• Fair value estimate set at A$51.98, compared with A$51.72 previously.
• Revenue growth assumption at 74.09%, compared with 41.15% previously.
• Net profit margin assumption at 24.60%, compared with 24.09% previously.
• Future P/E multiple at 17.44x, compared with 17.82x previously.
• Discount rate used at 8.33%, compared with 8.23% previously.

Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives link a company’s real world story to a financial forecast and fair value, updating as new data, guidance and risks come through. They help you see how project plans, commodity trends and balance sheet choices fit together in one clear view.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on BHP Group to stay up to date on:

• How copper and potash projects are tied to decarbonization and electrification demand, and what that could mean for future revenues and margins.
• The role of long life, low cost assets, cost leadership and capital discipline in supporting earnings resilience and shareholder returns.
• Key risks around iron ore concentration, project execution at Jansen, regulatory and water constraints, inflationary cost pressure and rising ESG obligations.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BHP.AX.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com