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• If you are looking at Lundin Mining and wondering whether the current share price offers value or stress, this article walks through what the numbers actually say about the stock.
• The share price closed at C$34.22, with returns of 9.9% over 7 days, 22.6% over 30 days, 15.2% year to date and 178.3% over the past year, which naturally raises questions about what is already priced in.
• Recent attention on Lundin Mining has centred on the stock’s strong share price performance and how it fits into investor interest in materials companies more broadly. These moves have put valuation front and centre for anyone trying to decide whether to initiate or adjust a position.
• Against this backdrop, Lundin Mining currently scores 0 out of 6 on our valuation checks for being undervalued. In what follows, we look at what different valuation methods say about the stock and then finish with a way to tie those models into a more complete view of value.

Lundin Mining scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Lundin Mining Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of future cash flows and discounts them back to today to reach an implied value for the company on a per share basis.

For Lundin Mining, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is $471.03 million. Analyst estimates and extrapolations suggest free cash flow of $743.55 million in 2026 and $402 million in 2030, with interim years including both positive and negative projected figures. Beyond the analyst horizon, Simply Wall St extrapolates additional years of free cash flow using its own assumptions.

When all of these projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $16.37 per share. Compared to the current share price of C$34.22, the DCF output implies the stock is 109.1% overvalued based on these inputs and assumptions.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Lundin Mining may be overvalued by 109.1%. Discover 868 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

LUN Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Lundin Mining.

Approach 2: Lundin Mining Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful gauge because it links what you pay for each share to the earnings that business is currently generating. Investors usually look for a P/E level that reflects both how quickly earnings might change over time and how risky those earnings are, with higher expected growth or lower risk often justifying a higher P/E, and the opposite also being true.

Lundin Mining is currently trading on a P/E of 99.20x. That sits well above the Metals and Mining industry average of 25.01x and the peer group average of 22.31x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Lundin Mining is 25.53x, which is its proprietary estimate of what a reasonable P/E could be for this company given factors such as earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and identified risks.

The Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the industry average, because it adjusts for company specific characteristics rather than assuming every business in the group deserves the same multiple. Comparing Lundin Mining’s current 99.20x P/E to the Fair Ratio of 25.53x indicates that the shares are trading well above what this framework suggests.

Result: OVERVALUED

TSX:LUN P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1440 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Lundin Mining Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use Narratives, where you set a story for Lundin Mining that ties your view on its projects, risks and metals cycles to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins. This then produces a Fair Value you can compare with the current price. It updates automatically when news or earnings land and can look very different from other investors’ views. For example, one investor might build a bullish Lundin Mining Narrative closer to the upper analyst price target of about C$21.08, while another might anchor their assumptions nearer the C$14.04 lower target.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Lundin Mining? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

TSX:LUN 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include LUN.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com