• Investors may be wondering whether Southern Copper’s current share price aligns with its underlying value, or if expectations have already been priced in.
• The stock last closed at US$160.55, with returns of 11.9% over 7 days, 14.4% over 30 days, 8.0% year to date, 79.3% over 1 year, 149.3% over 3 years, and 196.9% over 5 years. This naturally raises questions about what is already baked into the price.
• Recent attention on Southern Copper has been shaped by ongoing discussion around global copper demand, supply constraints and how producers are positioned as capital markets track resource companies more closely. These themes have put valuation front and center for investors who are trying to separate sentiment from fundamentals.
• On our framework, Southern Copper currently scores 0/6 on undervaluation checks. Next, we will walk through common valuation approaches such as discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis and multiples, then finish with a more holistic way to think about what the market might be pricing in.

Southern Copper scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Southern Copper Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A DCF model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows, then discounts them back to today’s dollars to arrive at an estimate of what the business might be worth per share right now.

For Southern Copper, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $3.44b. Analyst inputs and subsequent extrapolations extend out to 2035, with a projected free cash flow of $4.94b in 2030 and further estimated values thereafter, all expressed in US$.

When all those projected cash flows are discounted back and allocated to shareholders, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $97.21 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $160.55, this suggests the stock is around 65.2% above this DCF-based estimate of value.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Southern Copper may be overvalued by 65.2%. Discover 878 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

SCCO Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Southern Copper.

Approach 2: Southern Copper Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Southern Copper, the P/E ratio is a useful way to gauge how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It links the share price directly to current profits, which many investors watch closely.

What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on what the market expects for future growth and how risky those earnings appear. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while lower growth or higher risk usually calls for a lower multiple.

Southern Copper currently trades on a P/E of 34.4x. That sits above both the Metals and Mining industry average P/E of 27.2x and the peer average of 26.4x, so the stock is pricing in stronger or more dependable earnings than these benchmarks suggest.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Southern Copper is 25.2x. This is a proprietary P/E level that reflects factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks. Because it blends these elements, it aims to be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry.

Comparing the current P/E of 34.4x with the Fair Ratio of 25.2x indicates that, on this metric, Southern Copper screens as overvalued.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:SCCO P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1444 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Southern Copper Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach a clear story about Southern Copper to the actual numbers by linking your view of its projects, copper market conditions and risks to explicit forecasts for revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value, then comparing that fair value with today’s price to help you decide whether the stock suits you at current levels. All of this is inside an accessible tool on the Community page that updates automatically when new information such as earnings or news arrives. One investor might build a bullish Southern Copper Narrative closer to the US$128.70 price target using assumptions like revenue of US$13.0b, earnings of US$4.8b, a P/E around 22.2x and a fair value near the current US$118.29 estimate. Another might build a more cautious Narrative nearer the US$66.63 target using earnings of US$3.5b and a lower implied value. Both can see in real time how their story maps into numbers and how far their fair value sits above or below the latest share price.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Southern Copper? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:SCCO 1-Year Stock Price Chart

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SCCO.

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