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BHP Group (ASX:BHP) continues to attract attention after recent share price moves, with the stock up about 7% over the past month and about 29% over the past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for BHP Group.

The recent move has come after a strong run over 3 months, but the 1-day and 7-day share price returns are both down. This suggests some of that momentum may be cooling even as the 1-year total shareholder return of 76.63% highlights how rewarding the stock has been for investors over a longer period.

If you are looking beyond BHP Group in the resources space, this could be a useful moment to scan other copper focused opportunities through the 8 top copper producer stocks.

With BHP Group posting a 76.63% total return over the past year and trading around A$61.40, investors now face a key question: is there still value on the table, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 49.5% Undervalued

According to the most followed narrative for BHP Group, a fair value of A$121.48 sits well above the recent A$61.40 share price, raising questions about how much of the company’s scale and profitability is currently reflected in the market.

BHP Group is one of the world’s largest mining companies, producing key commodities such as iron ore, copper, and metallurgical coal that are essential for global infrastructure, steel production, and the energy transition. In FY2024, BHP reported revenue of approximately US$55.7 billion and underlying attributable profit of US$13.7 billion, highlighting the company’s strong profitability and scale in global resource markets.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what underpins such a big gap between narrative value and price? The core assumptions rest on large scale output, resilient margins and long term demand for copper and iron ore. Curious how those inputs combine into that A$121.48 figure and what kind of earnings profile they imply over time?

Result: Fair Value of A$121.48 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, BHP Group’s narrative could be tested if global steel demand weakens and iron ore prices soften, or if copper intensive projects are delayed or scaled back.

Find out about the key risks to this BHP Group narrative.

Another View on BHP Group Using Market Ratios

While the user narrative points to BHP Group as 49.5% undervalued at A$121.48 per share, the market’s own yardstick tells a different story. At a P/E of 21.4x, BHP trades well above the Australian Metals and Mining industry at 11.9x and above its fair ratio of 20.3x, which suggests less of a bargain and more valuation risk if earnings do not keep pace.

Compared with a peer average P/E of 30.2x, BHP does not look stretched across its wider peer set. However, the premium to its industry and to that 20.3x fair ratio invites a simple question for investors: is this pricing a quality premium you are comfortable paying at A$61.40?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

ASX:BHP P/E Ratio as at Jun 2026

Next Steps

If the mix of optimism and caution around BHP Group has you weighing both sides, act quickly to review the numbers and risk indicators for yourself with the 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond BHP Group?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical datan and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or yourn financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.n Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.n Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BHP.AX.

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